Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
Identifieur interne : 005616 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005615; suivant : 005617Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
Auteurs : A. Daniau [Royaume-Uni, France] ; P. J. Bartlein [États-Unis] ; S. P. Harrison [Royaume-Uni, Australie] ; I. C. Prentice [Australie, Royaume-Uni] ; S. Brewer [États-Unis] ; P. Friedlingstein [France, Royaume-Uni] ; T. I. Harrison-Prentice [Royaume-Uni] ; J. Inoue [Japon] ; K. Izumi [États-Unis] ; J. R. Marlon [États-Unis] ; S. Mooney [Australie] ; M. J. Power [États-Unis] ; J. Stevenson [Australie] ; W. Tinner [Suisse] ; M. Andri [Slovénie] ; J. Atanassova [Bulgarie] ; H. Behling [Allemagne] ; M. Black [Australie] ; O. Blarquez [France] ; K. J. Brown [Canada, Danemark] ; C. Carcaillet [France] ; E. A. Colhoun [Australie] ; D. Colombaroli [Suisse] ; B. A. S. Davis [Suisse] ; D. D'Costa [Australie] ; J. Dodson [Australie] ; L. Dupont [Allemagne] ; Z. Eshetu [Éthiopie] ; D. G. Gavin [États-Unis] ; A. Genries [France] ; S. Haberle [Australie] ; D. J. Hallett [Canada] ; G. Hope [Australie] ; S. P. Horn [États-Unis] ; T. G. Kassa [Allemagne] ; F. Katamura [Japon] ; L. M. Kennedy [États-Unis] ; P. Kershaw [Australie] ; S. Krivonogov [Russie] ; C. Long [États-Unis] ; D. Magri [Italie] ; E. Marinova [Bulgarie, Belgique] ; G. M. Mckenzie [Australie] ; P. I. Moreno [Chili] ; P. Moss [Australie] ; F. H. Neumann [Afrique du Sud, Allemagne] ; E. Norström [Suède] ; C. Paitre [Canada] ; D. Rius [France] ; N. Roberts [Royaume-Uni] ; G. S. Robinson [États-Unis] ; N. Sasaki [Japon] ; L. Scott [Afrique du Sud] ; H. Takahara [Japon] ; V. Terwilliger [États-Unis, France] ; F. Thevenon [Suisse] ; R. Turner [Royaume-Uni] ; V. G. Valsecchi [Suisse, France] ; B. Vannière [France] ; M. Walsh [États-Unis] ; N. Williams [Australie] ; Y. Zhang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles [ 0886-6236 ] ; 2012-12.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Acad, Annual temperature, Annual values, Base period, Biomass, Black curves, Bootstrap resampling, Bottom panel, Burned ground, Burning over, Cambridge univ, Charcoal, Charcoal curves, Charcoal data, Charcoal record, Charcoal records, Charcoal series, Charcoal sites, Charcoal values, Climate, Climate change, Climate changes, Climate data, Climate simulations, Climatic, Composite charcoal curves, Composite charcoal records, Composite curve, Confidence intervals, Core record, Core records, Daniau, Data sets, Data values, Database, Deglaciation, Development core team, Different latitude bands, Earth system, Environmental sciences, Experimental design, Extratropical regions, Extratropics, Fire activity, Fire ecology, Fire emissions, Fire history, Fire regimes, Generalized additive models, Glacial, Global, Global biogeochem, Global biomass, Global change biol, Global charcoal database, Global data, Global palaeofire, Global planet, Global scale, Global warming, Gpwg, Gradual increase, Hemispheric, Hemispheric differences, Holocene, Holocene cooling trend, Human activities, Human influences, Human populations, Incomplete data, Individual charcoal records, Individual records, Initial conditions, Initial increase, Intermediate levels, Intermediate moisture levels, Landscape fragmentation, Latter part, Lightning ignitions, Likely experience, Marlon, Model output, Moisture index, Monotonic increase, Natl, Natural history, Natural sciences, Northern extratropics, Northern tropics, Overall increase, Overall variability, Overall variance, Plant sciences, Precipitation, Preliminary analyses, Prentice, Present context, Principal components analysis, Proc, Regression residuals, Response surfaces, Sedimentary charcoal records, Simulation, Southern africa, Southern extratropics, Southern hemispheres, Southern tropics, Spatial variations, Target point, Temperature changes, Transient simulation, Tree mortality, Tropics, Twentieth century, Universit, Variability, Variance, Warmer world, Water balance, Weighted regression, Werf, Wildfire, World ecosystems, Zonal, balance, biomass, charcoal, climate, climate change, fires, global change, global warming, humidity, remote sensing, signals, temperature, variability.
- Teeft :
- Acad, Annual temperature, Annual values, Base period, Biomass, Black curves, Bootstrap resampling, Bottom panel, Cambridge univ, Charcoal, Charcoal curves, Charcoal data, Charcoal record, Charcoal records, Charcoal series, Charcoal sites, Charcoal values, Climate, Climate change, Climate changes, Climate data, Climate simulations, Climatic, Composite charcoal curves, Composite charcoal records, Composite curve, Confidence intervals, Core record, Core records, Daniau, Data sets, Data values, Database, Deglaciation, Development core team, Different latitude bands, Earth system, Environmental sciences, Experimental design, Extratropical regions, Extratropics, Fire activity, Fire emissions, Fire history, Fire regimes, Generalized additive models, Glacial, Global, Global biogeochem, Global biomass, Global change biol, Global charcoal database, Global data, Global palaeofire, Global planet, Global scale, Global warming, Gpwg, Gradual increase, Hemispheric, Hemispheric differences, Holocene, Holocene cooling trend, Human activities, Human influences, Human populations, Incomplete data, Individual charcoal records, Individual records, Initial conditions, Initial increase, Intermediate levels, Intermediate moisture levels, Landscape fragmentation, Latter part, Lightning ignitions, Likely experience, Marlon, Model output, Moisture index, Monotonic increase, Natl, Natural history, Natural sciences, Northern extratropics, Northern tropics, Overall increase, Overall variability, Overall variance, Plant sciences, Precipitation, Preliminary analyses, Prentice, Present context, Principal components analysis, Proc, Regression residuals, Response surfaces, Sedimentary charcoal records, Simulation, Southern africa, Southern extratropics, Southern hemispheres, Southern tropics, Spatial variations, Target point, Temperature changes, Transient simulation, Tree mortality, Tropics, Twentieth century, Universit, Variability, Variance, Warmer world, Water balance, Weighted regression, Werf, Wildfire, World ecosystems, Zonal.
Abstract
Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo‐ fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote‐sensing observations of month‐by‐month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2011GB004249
Affiliations:
- Afrique du Sud, Allemagne, Australie, Belgique, Bulgarie, Canada, Chili, Danemark, France, Italie, Japon, Royaume-Uni, Russie, République populaire de Chine, Slovénie, Suisse, Suède, États-Unis, Éthiopie
- Alberta, Basse-Saxe, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Brême (Land), Canton de Berne, Canton de Genève, Canton de Vaud, Centre-Val de Loire, Franche-Comté, Gauteng, Hovedstaden, Kansas, Languedoc-Roussillon, Latium, Midi-Pyrénées, Nouvelle-Galles du Sud, Occitanie (région administrative), Oregon, Province du Brabant flamand, Région Centre, Région flamande, Sofia-ville (oblast), Svealand, Tennessee, Utah, Virginie, Washington (État), Wisconsin, Wyoming, État de New York, Île-de-France
- Berne, Besançon, Brême, Calgary, Copenhague, Genève, Gif-sur-Yvette, Göttingen, Johannesbourg, Lausanne, Lawrence (Kansas), Louvain, Montpellier, Orléans, Pékin, Rome, Sofia, Stockholm, Sydney, Toulouse
- Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Université Montpellier 2, Université d'Orléans, Université de Berne, Université de Calgary, Université de Franche-Comté, Université de Genève, Université de Stockholm, Université du Kansas, Université du Witwatersrand
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Prentice</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bristol</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Division of Biology, Imperial College, Ascot</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ascot</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brewer, S" sort="Brewer, S" uniqKey="Brewer S" first="S." last="Brewer">S. Brewer</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Botany Department, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Wyoming</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Friedlingstein, P" sort="Friedlingstein, P" uniqKey="Friedlingstein P" first="P." last="Friedlingstein">P. Friedlingstein</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement-UMR 1572 CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Gif-sur-Yvette</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Exeter</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Harrison Rentice, T I" sort="Harrison Rentice, T I" uniqKey="Harrison Rentice T" first="T. I." last="Harrison-Prentice">T. I. Harrison-Prentice</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Newton St. Cyres, Devon</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Devon</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Inoue, J" sort="Inoue, J" uniqKey="Inoue J" first="J." last="Inoue">J. Inoue</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Osaka City University, Osaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Osaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Izumi, K" sort="Izumi, K" uniqKey="Izumi K" first="K." last="Izumi">K. Izumi</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Oregon</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marlon, J R" sort="Marlon, J R" uniqKey="Marlon J" first="J. R." last="Marlon">J. R. Marlon</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Wisconsin</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mooney, S" sort="Mooney, S" uniqKey="Mooney S" first="S." last="Mooney">S. Mooney</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Power, M J" sort="Power, M J" uniqKey="Power M" first="M. J." last="Power">M. J. 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Black</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Blarquez, O" sort="Blarquez, O" uniqKey="Blarquez O" first="O." last="Blarquez">O. 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Brown</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Marine Geology and Glaciology, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Copenhague</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Hovedstaden</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Carcaillet, C" sort="Carcaillet, C" uniqKey="Carcaillet C" first="C." last="Carcaillet">C. 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Dodson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Sydney, NSW</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dupont, L" sort="Dupont, L" uniqKey="Dupont L" first="L." last="Dupont">L. Dupont</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Brême (Land)</region><settlement type="city">Brême</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eshetu, Z" sort="Eshetu, Z" uniqKey="Eshetu Z" first="Z." last="Eshetu">Z. Eshetu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Éthiopie</country><wicri:regionArea>Paleoanthropology and Paleoenvironment Program, College of Natural Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Addis Ababa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gavin, D G" sort="Gavin, D G" uniqKey="Gavin D" first="D. G." last="Gavin">D. G. Gavin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Oregon</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Genries, A" sort="Genries, A" uniqKey="Genries A" first="A." last="Genries">A. Genries</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Bio-Archaeology and Ecology (UMR 5059 CNRS), and Paleoenvironments and Chronoecology (PALECO EPHE), Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Montpellier 2</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Haberle, S" sort="Haberle, S" uniqKey="Haberle S" first="S." last="Haberle">S. Haberle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>ACT</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hallett, D J" sort="Hallett, D J" uniqKey="Hallett D" first="D. J." last="Hallett">D. J. Hallett</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Biogeoscience Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Calgary</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Calgary</settlement><region type="state">Alberta</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hope, G" sort="Hope, G" uniqKey="Hope G" first="G." last="Hope">G. 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Turner</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Earth and Environmental Sciences, School of Geography, University of Plymouth, Plymouth</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Pedagogic Research Institute and Observatory, University of Plymouth, Plymouth</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Plymouth</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valsecchi, V G" sort="Valsecchi, V G" uniqKey="Valsecchi V" first="V. G." last="Valsecchi">V. G. Valsecchi</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Berne</settlement><region type="région" nuts="3">Canton de Berne</region><settlement type="city">Berne</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Berne</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier-UMR 5554, Université Montpellier 2, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Montpellier 2</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vanniere, B" sort="Vanniere, B" uniqKey="Vanniere B" first="B." last="Vannière">B. Vannière</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Chrono-Environment Laboratory-UMR 6249 CNRS, Université de Franche-Comté, Besançon</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Bourgogne-Franche-Comté</region><region type="old region">Franche-Comté</region><settlement type="city">Besançon</settlement><settlement type="city" wicri:auto="siege">Besançon</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Franche-Comté</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Walsh, M" sort="Walsh, M" uniqKey="Walsh M" first="M." last="Walsh">M. Walsh</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Oregon</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, Central Washington University, Ellensburg, Washington</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Williams, N" sort="Williams, N" uniqKey="Williams N" first="N." last="Williams">N. Williams</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Natural Resources Policy Section, NSW Department of Premier and Cabinet, Sydney</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Sydney</settlement><region type="état">Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" sort="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y" first="Y." last="Zhang">Y. Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Botany, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Global Biogeochemical Cycles</title><title level="j" type="alt">GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES</title><idno type="ISSN">0886-6236</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-9224</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">26</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">12</biblScope><date type="published" when="2012-12">2012-12</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0886-6236</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0886-6236</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Acad</term><term>Annual temperature</term><term>Annual values</term><term>Base period</term><term>Biomass</term><term>Black curves</term><term>Bootstrap resampling</term><term>Bottom panel</term><term>Burned ground</term><term>Burning over</term><term>Cambridge univ</term><term>Charcoal</term><term>Charcoal curves</term><term>Charcoal data</term><term>Charcoal record</term><term>Charcoal records</term><term>Charcoal series</term><term>Charcoal sites</term><term>Charcoal values</term><term>Climate</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate changes</term><term>Climate data</term><term>Climate simulations</term><term>Climatic</term><term>Composite charcoal curves</term><term>Composite charcoal records</term><term>Composite curve</term><term>Confidence intervals</term><term>Core record</term><term>Core records</term><term>Daniau</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Data values</term><term>Database</term><term>Deglaciation</term><term>Development core team</term><term>Different latitude bands</term><term>Earth system</term><term>Environmental sciences</term><term>Experimental design</term><term>Extratropical regions</term><term>Extratropics</term><term>Fire activity</term><term>Fire ecology</term><term>Fire emissions</term><term>Fire history</term><term>Fire regimes</term><term>Generalized additive models</term><term>Glacial</term><term>Global</term><term>Global biogeochem</term><term>Global biomass</term><term>Global change biol</term><term>Global charcoal database</term><term>Global data</term><term>Global palaeofire</term><term>Global planet</term><term>Global scale</term><term>Global warming</term><term>Gpwg</term><term>Gradual increase</term><term>Hemispheric</term><term>Hemispheric differences</term><term>Holocene</term><term>Holocene cooling trend</term><term>Human activities</term><term>Human influences</term><term>Human populations</term><term>Incomplete data</term><term>Individual charcoal records</term><term>Individual records</term><term>Initial conditions</term><term>Initial increase</term><term>Intermediate levels</term><term>Intermediate moisture levels</term><term>Landscape fragmentation</term><term>Latter part</term><term>Lightning ignitions</term><term>Likely experience</term><term>Marlon</term><term>Model output</term><term>Moisture index</term><term>Monotonic increase</term><term>Natl</term><term>Natural history</term><term>Natural sciences</term><term>Northern extratropics</term><term>Northern tropics</term><term>Overall increase</term><term>Overall variability</term><term>Overall variance</term><term>Plant sciences</term><term>Precipitation</term><term>Preliminary analyses</term><term>Prentice</term><term>Present context</term><term>Principal components analysis</term><term>Proc</term><term>Regression residuals</term><term>Response surfaces</term><term>Sedimentary charcoal records</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Southern africa</term><term>Southern extratropics</term><term>Southern hemispheres</term><term>Southern tropics</term><term>Spatial variations</term><term>Target point</term><term>Temperature changes</term><term>Transient simulation</term><term>Tree mortality</term><term>Tropics</term><term>Twentieth century</term><term>Universit</term><term>Variability</term><term>Variance</term><term>Warmer world</term><term>Water balance</term><term>Weighted regression</term><term>Werf</term><term>Wildfire</term><term>World ecosystems</term><term>Zonal</term><term>balance</term><term>biomass</term><term>charcoal</term><term>climate</term><term>climate change</term><term>fires</term><term>global change</term><term>global warming</term><term>humidity</term><term>remote sensing</term><term>signals</term><term>temperature</term><term>variability</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Bilan</term><term>Biomasse</term><term>Brûlis</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Changement planétaire</term><term>Charbon bois</term><term>Climat</term><term>Ecobuage</term><term>Ecologie du feu</term><term>Humidité</term><term>Incendie</term><term>Réchauffement planétaire</term><term>Signal</term><term>Température</term><term>Télédétection</term><term>Variabilité</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Acad</term><term>Annual temperature</term><term>Annual values</term><term>Base period</term><term>Biomass</term><term>Black curves</term><term>Bootstrap resampling</term><term>Bottom panel</term><term>Cambridge univ</term><term>Charcoal</term><term>Charcoal curves</term><term>Charcoal data</term><term>Charcoal record</term><term>Charcoal records</term><term>Charcoal series</term><term>Charcoal sites</term><term>Charcoal values</term><term>Climate</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Climate changes</term><term>Climate data</term><term>Climate simulations</term><term>Climatic</term><term>Composite charcoal curves</term><term>Composite charcoal records</term><term>Composite curve</term><term>Confidence intervals</term><term>Core record</term><term>Core records</term><term>Daniau</term><term>Data sets</term><term>Data values</term><term>Database</term><term>Deglaciation</term><term>Development core team</term><term>Different latitude bands</term><term>Earth system</term><term>Environmental sciences</term><term>Experimental design</term><term>Extratropical regions</term><term>Extratropics</term><term>Fire activity</term><term>Fire emissions</term><term>Fire history</term><term>Fire regimes</term><term>Generalized additive models</term><term>Glacial</term><term>Global</term><term>Global biogeochem</term><term>Global biomass</term><term>Global change biol</term><term>Global charcoal database</term><term>Global data</term><term>Global palaeofire</term><term>Global planet</term><term>Global scale</term><term>Global warming</term><term>Gpwg</term><term>Gradual increase</term><term>Hemispheric</term><term>Hemispheric differences</term><term>Holocene</term><term>Holocene cooling trend</term><term>Human activities</term><term>Human influences</term><term>Human populations</term><term>Incomplete data</term><term>Individual charcoal records</term><term>Individual records</term><term>Initial conditions</term><term>Initial increase</term><term>Intermediate levels</term><term>Intermediate moisture levels</term><term>Landscape fragmentation</term><term>Latter part</term><term>Lightning ignitions</term><term>Likely experience</term><term>Marlon</term><term>Model output</term><term>Moisture index</term><term>Monotonic increase</term><term>Natl</term><term>Natural history</term><term>Natural sciences</term><term>Northern extratropics</term><term>Northern tropics</term><term>Overall increase</term><term>Overall variability</term><term>Overall variance</term><term>Plant sciences</term><term>Precipitation</term><term>Preliminary analyses</term><term>Prentice</term><term>Present context</term><term>Principal components analysis</term><term>Proc</term><term>Regression residuals</term><term>Response surfaces</term><term>Sedimentary charcoal records</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Southern africa</term><term>Southern extratropics</term><term>Southern hemispheres</term><term>Southern tropics</term><term>Spatial variations</term><term>Target point</term><term>Temperature changes</term><term>Transient simulation</term><term>Tree mortality</term><term>Tropics</term><term>Twentieth century</term><term>Universit</term><term>Variability</term><term>Variance</term><term>Warmer world</term><term>Water balance</term><term>Weighted regression</term><term>Werf</term><term>Wildfire</term><term>World ecosystems</term><term>Zonal</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Bilan</term><term>Biomasse</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Charbon de bois</term><term>Climat</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Base de données</term><term>Incendie</term><term>Réchauffement climatique</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Télédétection</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo‐ fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote‐sensing observations of month‐by‐month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Afrique du Sud</li><li>Allemagne</li><li>Australie</li><li>Belgique</li><li>Bulgarie</li><li>Canada</li><li>Chili</li><li>Danemark</li><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>Japon</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Russie</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>Slovénie</li><li>Suisse</li><li>Suède</li><li>États-Unis</li><li>Éthiopie</li></country><region><li>Alberta</li><li>Basse-Saxe</li><li>Bourgogne-Franche-Comté</li><li>Brême (Land)</li><li>Canton de Berne</li><li>Canton de Genève</li><li>Canton de Vaud</li><li>Centre-Val de Loire</li><li>Franche-Comté</li><li>Gauteng</li><li>Hovedstaden</li><li>Kansas</li><li>Languedoc-Roussillon</li><li>Latium</li><li>Midi-Pyrénées</li><li>Nouvelle-Galles du Sud</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li><li>Oregon</li><li>Province du Brabant flamand</li><li>Région Centre</li><li>Région flamande</li><li>Sofia-ville (oblast)</li><li>Svealand</li><li>Tennessee</li><li>Utah</li><li>Virginie</li><li>Washington (État)</li><li>Wisconsin</li><li>Wyoming</li><li>État de New York</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Berne</li><li>Besançon</li><li>Brême</li><li>Calgary</li><li>Copenhague</li><li>Genève</li><li>Gif-sur-Yvette</li><li>Göttingen</li><li>Johannesbourg</li><li>Lausanne</li><li>Lawrence (Kansas)</li><li>Louvain</li><li>Montpellier</li><li>Orléans</li><li>Pékin</li><li>Rome</li><li>Sofia</li><li>Stockholm</li><li>Sydney</li><li>Toulouse</li></settlement><orgName><li>Katholieke Universiteit Leuven</li><li>Université Montpellier 2</li><li>Université d'Orléans</li><li>Université de Berne</li><li>Université de Calgary</li><li>Université de Franche-Comté</li><li>Université de Genève</li><li>Université de Stockholm</li><li>Université du Kansas</li><li>Université du Witwatersrand</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Daniau, A" sort="Daniau, A" uniqKey="Daniau A" first="A." last="Daniau">A. Daniau</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Daniau, A" sort="Daniau, A" uniqKey="Daniau A" first="A." last="Daniau">A. Daniau</name><name sortKey="Friedlingstein, P" sort="Friedlingstein, P" uniqKey="Friedlingstein P" first="P." last="Friedlingstein">P. Friedlingstein</name><name sortKey="Harrison Rentice, T I" sort="Harrison Rentice, T I" uniqKey="Harrison Rentice T" first="T. I." last="Harrison-Prentice">T. I. Harrison-Prentice</name><name sortKey="Harrison, S P" sort="Harrison, S P" uniqKey="Harrison S" first="S. P." last="Harrison">S. P. Harrison</name><name sortKey="Prentice, I C" sort="Prentice, I C" uniqKey="Prentice I" first="I. C." last="Prentice">I. C. Prentice</name><name sortKey="Prentice, I C" sort="Prentice, I C" uniqKey="Prentice I" first="I. C." last="Prentice">I. C. Prentice</name><name sortKey="Roberts, N" sort="Roberts, N" uniqKey="Roberts N" first="N." last="Roberts">N. Roberts</name><name sortKey="Turner, R" sort="Turner, R" uniqKey="Turner R" first="R." last="Turner">R. Turner</name><name sortKey="Turner, R" sort="Turner, R" uniqKey="Turner R" first="R." last="Turner">R. Turner</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Daniau, A" sort="Daniau, A" uniqKey="Daniau A" first="A." last="Daniau">A. Daniau</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Blarquez, O" sort="Blarquez, O" uniqKey="Blarquez O" first="O." last="Blarquez">O. Blarquez</name><name sortKey="Carcaillet, C" sort="Carcaillet, C" uniqKey="Carcaillet C" first="C." last="Carcaillet">C. Carcaillet</name><name sortKey="Friedlingstein, P" sort="Friedlingstein, P" uniqKey="Friedlingstein P" first="P." last="Friedlingstein">P. Friedlingstein</name><name sortKey="Genries, A" sort="Genries, A" uniqKey="Genries A" first="A." last="Genries">A. Genries</name><name sortKey="Rius, D" sort="Rius, D" uniqKey="Rius D" first="D." last="Rius">D. Rius</name><name sortKey="Rius, D" sort="Rius, D" uniqKey="Rius D" first="D." last="Rius">D. Rius</name><name sortKey="Terwilliger, V" sort="Terwilliger, V" uniqKey="Terwilliger V" first="V." last="Terwilliger">V. Terwilliger</name><name sortKey="Terwilliger, V" sort="Terwilliger, V" uniqKey="Terwilliger V" first="V." last="Terwilliger">V. Terwilliger</name><name sortKey="Valsecchi, V G" sort="Valsecchi, V G" uniqKey="Valsecchi V" first="V. G." last="Valsecchi">V. G. Valsecchi</name><name sortKey="Vanniere, B" sort="Vanniere, B" uniqKey="Vanniere B" first="B." last="Vannière">B. Vannière</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Oregon"><name sortKey="Bartlein, P J" sort="Bartlein, P J" uniqKey="Bartlein P" first="P. J." last="Bartlein">P. J. Bartlein</name></region><name sortKey="Brewer, S" sort="Brewer, S" uniqKey="Brewer S" first="S." last="Brewer">S. Brewer</name><name sortKey="Gavin, D G" sort="Gavin, D G" uniqKey="Gavin D" first="D. G." last="Gavin">D. G. Gavin</name><name sortKey="Horn, S P" sort="Horn, S P" uniqKey="Horn S" first="S. P." last="Horn">S. P. Horn</name><name sortKey="Izumi, K" sort="Izumi, K" uniqKey="Izumi K" first="K." last="Izumi">K. Izumi</name><name sortKey="Kennedy, L M" sort="Kennedy, L M" uniqKey="Kennedy L" first="L. M." last="Kennedy">L. M. Kennedy</name><name sortKey="Long, C" sort="Long, C" uniqKey="Long C" first="C." last="Long">C. Long</name><name sortKey="Marlon, J R" sort="Marlon, J R" uniqKey="Marlon J" first="J. R." last="Marlon">J. R. Marlon</name><name sortKey="Power, M J" sort="Power, M J" uniqKey="Power M" first="M. J." last="Power">M. J. Power</name><name sortKey="Robinson, G S" sort="Robinson, G S" uniqKey="Robinson G" first="G. S." last="Robinson">G. S. Robinson</name><name sortKey="Terwilliger, V" sort="Terwilliger, V" uniqKey="Terwilliger V" first="V." last="Terwilliger">V. Terwilliger</name><name sortKey="Walsh, M" sort="Walsh, M" uniqKey="Walsh M" first="M." last="Walsh">M. Walsh</name><name sortKey="Walsh, M" sort="Walsh, M" uniqKey="Walsh M" first="M." last="Walsh">M. Walsh</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Harrison, S P" sort="Harrison, S P" uniqKey="Harrison S" first="S. P." last="Harrison">S. P. Harrison</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Black, M" sort="Black, M" uniqKey="Black M" first="M." last="Black">M. Black</name><name sortKey="Colhoun, E A" sort="Colhoun, E A" uniqKey="Colhoun E" first="E. A." last="Colhoun">E. A. Colhoun</name><name sortKey="D Costa, D" sort="D Costa, D" uniqKey="D Costa D" first="D." last="D'Costa">D. D'Costa</name><name sortKey="Dodson, J" sort="Dodson, J" uniqKey="Dodson J" first="J." last="Dodson">J. Dodson</name><name sortKey="Haberle, S" sort="Haberle, S" uniqKey="Haberle S" first="S." last="Haberle">S. Haberle</name><name sortKey="Hope, G" sort="Hope, G" uniqKey="Hope G" first="G." last="Hope">G. Hope</name><name sortKey="Kershaw, P" sort="Kershaw, P" uniqKey="Kershaw P" first="P." last="Kershaw">P. Kershaw</name><name sortKey="Mckenzie, G M" sort="Mckenzie, G M" uniqKey="Mckenzie G" first="G. M." last="Mckenzie">G. M. Mckenzie</name><name sortKey="Mooney, S" sort="Mooney, S" uniqKey="Mooney S" first="S." last="Mooney">S. Mooney</name><name sortKey="Moss, P" sort="Moss, P" uniqKey="Moss P" first="P." last="Moss">P. Moss</name><name sortKey="Prentice, I C" sort="Prentice, I C" uniqKey="Prentice I" first="I. C." last="Prentice">I. C. Prentice</name><name sortKey="Stevenson, J" sort="Stevenson, J" uniqKey="Stevenson J" first="J." last="Stevenson">J. Stevenson</name><name sortKey="Williams, N" sort="Williams, N" uniqKey="Williams N" first="N." last="Williams">N. Williams</name></country><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Inoue, J" sort="Inoue, J" uniqKey="Inoue J" first="J." last="Inoue">J. Inoue</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Katamura, F" sort="Katamura, F" uniqKey="Katamura F" first="F." last="Katamura">F. Katamura</name><name sortKey="Sasaki, N" sort="Sasaki, N" uniqKey="Sasaki N" first="N." last="Sasaki">N. Sasaki</name><name sortKey="Takahara, H" sort="Takahara, H" uniqKey="Takahara H" first="H." last="Takahara">H. Takahara</name></country><country name="Suisse"><region name="Canton de Berne"><name sortKey="Tinner, W" sort="Tinner, W" uniqKey="Tinner W" first="W." last="Tinner">W. Tinner</name></region><name sortKey="Colombaroli, D" sort="Colombaroli, D" uniqKey="Colombaroli D" first="D." last="Colombaroli">D. Colombaroli</name><name sortKey="Davis, B A S" sort="Davis, B A S" uniqKey="Davis B" first="B. A. S." last="Davis">B. A. S. Davis</name><name sortKey="Thevenon, F" sort="Thevenon, F" uniqKey="Thevenon F" first="F." last="Thevenon">F. Thevenon</name><name sortKey="Valsecchi, V G" sort="Valsecchi, V G" uniqKey="Valsecchi V" first="V. G." last="Valsecchi">V. G. Valsecchi</name></country><country name="Slovénie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Andri, M" sort="Andri, M" uniqKey="Andri M" first="M." last="Andri">M. Andri</name></noRegion></country><country name="Bulgarie"><region name="Sofia-ville (oblast)"><name sortKey="Atanassova, J" sort="Atanassova, J" uniqKey="Atanassova J" first="J." last="Atanassova">J. Atanassova</name></region><name sortKey="Marinova, E" sort="Marinova, E" uniqKey="Marinova E" first="E." last="Marinova">E. Marinova</name></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Basse-Saxe"><name sortKey="Behling, H" sort="Behling, H" uniqKey="Behling H" first="H." last="Behling">H. Behling</name></region><name sortKey="Dupont, L" sort="Dupont, L" uniqKey="Dupont L" first="L." last="Dupont">L. Dupont</name><name sortKey="Kassa, T G" sort="Kassa, T G" uniqKey="Kassa T" first="T. G." last="Kassa">T. G. Kassa</name><name sortKey="Neumann, F H" sort="Neumann, F H" uniqKey="Neumann F" first="F. H." last="Neumann">F. H. Neumann</name></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Brown, K J" sort="Brown, K J" uniqKey="Brown K" first="K. J." last="Brown">K. J. Brown</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Hallett, D J" sort="Hallett, D J" uniqKey="Hallett D" first="D. J." last="Hallett">D. J. Hallett</name><name sortKey="Paitre, C" sort="Paitre, C" uniqKey="Paitre C" first="C." last="Paitre">C. Paitre</name></country><country name="Danemark"><region name="Hovedstaden"><name sortKey="Brown, K J" sort="Brown, K J" uniqKey="Brown K" first="K. J." last="Brown">K. J. Brown</name></region></country><country name="Éthiopie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Eshetu, Z" sort="Eshetu, Z" uniqKey="Eshetu Z" first="Z." last="Eshetu">Z. Eshetu</name></noRegion></country><country name="Russie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Krivonogov, S" sort="Krivonogov, S" uniqKey="Krivonogov S" first="S." last="Krivonogov">S. Krivonogov</name></noRegion></country><country name="Italie"><region name="Latium"><name sortKey="Magri, D" sort="Magri, D" uniqKey="Magri D" first="D." last="Magri">D. Magri</name></region></country><country name="Belgique"><region name="Région flamande"><name sortKey="Marinova, E" sort="Marinova, E" uniqKey="Marinova E" first="E." last="Marinova">E. Marinova</name></region></country><country name="Chili"><noRegion><name sortKey="Moreno, P I" sort="Moreno, P I" uniqKey="Moreno P" first="P. I." last="Moreno">P. I. Moreno</name></noRegion></country><country name="Afrique du Sud"><region name="Gauteng"><name sortKey="Neumann, F H" sort="Neumann, F H" uniqKey="Neumann F" first="F. H." last="Neumann">F. H. Neumann</name></region><name sortKey="Scott, L" sort="Scott, L" uniqKey="Scott L" first="L." last="Scott">L. Scott</name></country><country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Norstrom, E" sort="Norstrom, E" uniqKey="Norstrom E" first="E." last="Norström">E. Norström</name></region></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" sort="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y" first="Y." last="Zhang">Y. Zhang</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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